Archive for July, 2009

Finally, a win. I was starting to think me writing here was a big jinx. I could’ve done without all of the drama late in the game, but I’ll take the win however we can get it. We got out of the gates quickly with a two-run double from Kotchman in the 2nd. It stayed that way until the 5th, when Vazquez gave up an RBI single to Ronny Paulino. McLouth pushed the score to 3-1, after a single in the 7th that scored Kotchman. Then, things started to unravel. Vazquez gave up a lead off homer in the 8th to Cody Ross. That probably should’ve been Bobby’s cue to get him out of there, but instead he let him pitch to Paulino (flied out) and Brett Carroll (walk) before he yanked him for Gonzalez. After giving up a single to Wes Helms and getting a strikeout from Bonifacio, they intentionally put Hanley on so they could pitch to Cantu. Cantu hit a slow chopper toward 3rd which Chipper couldn’t do anything about and suddenly the game was tied.

It stayed that way until the top of the 10th. McLouth led off with a single. KJ then sac’d him to second. After an intentional walk to Chipper, McCann blasted a 2-2 pitch deep to right center to give the Braves the 6-3 lead, which eventually became the victory.

Vazquez was excellent, as usual, striking out eight and walking just one over 7 1/3. McCann, Kotchman and McLouth all had multi-hit games, while Kelly Johnson, Hernandez and Diaz all put up 0-4′s.

The biggest story coming out of this game was the fact that both Prado and Escobar got hurt. Prado was hit on the ankle by a line drive during warmups. It swelled and he was not available for the game. Escobar was then hit on the wrist by a 2nd inning pitch and had to leave the game. X-rays were negative. He’s day-to-day. Dodgers come to town for 3, with Jason Schmidt vs.  Tommy Hanson scheduled for tonight. Series preview coming later.

While I didn’t expect a win, I did expect to not have the winning margin come from a Josh Johnson homer. Kawakami was terrible. He was chased in the fifth after giving up his third homerun in seven batters. Seven hits and three walks before the fifth is over is not the recipe for success. In a game where Josh Johnson only gets one strikeout in six innings, you need to hope you can bunch some hits. Unfortunately, Kotchman’s homerun was a solo shot and Anderson’s came at a time when it really didn’t matter anymore. McCann and Escobar both put up the 0-4′s, although Brian was able to score after a fielder’s choice.

The play that hurt us the most, other than the Johnson dinger, happened in the top of the 5th. With one out and runners on the corners, Prado stepped up in a 4-1 game with a chance to keep it interesting. After fouling off the first pitch, Prado took two balls. That would be the best part of the at-bat, as he promptly grounded into an inning ending double play which lowed our chances to win the game by 11%. Ouch.

Vazquez/VandenHurk tonight. Vegas line says we are 59.7% to win. Let’s hope Vazquez can stop the bleeding and get us out of Florida. Unfortunately for us, we leave Florida in order to go home to welcome the Dodgers.

Well, that hurt. After taking the lead in the top of the 9th off of a Garrett Anderson solo homer, Soriano gave up a walk, sac bunt and walk off homer to the immortal Ross Gload to give the Marlins the first game of the series.

The Braves got on the board first with an RBI single from Prado. Jurrjens gave it right back in the bottom half, however, with a double from Hanley that scored Nolasco (ugh) and Bonifacio.  Things stayed that way until the top of the 6th, where Chipper led of the inning with a solo shot. Of course, this all led to the rug being pulled out from under us in the 9th. It’s games like this that will be remembered at the end of the season when we finish 2 games out of the Wild Card.

Jurrjens pitched well, going six innings with five strikeouts while walking just one. Anderson had the best day at the plate, going 2-4 with the aforementioned home run. Obviously, the biggest low-light was Soriano’s blown save, but McCann and Kotchman can both take a bit of the blame with dueling 0-4′s.

Kawakami/Johnson tonight. We really need Kawakami to step it up if we have any chance of taking these next two game.  The Vegas line says that we are 41.5% to win tonight. That seems realistic. If we use that number and assume a 55% chance to win tomorrow, we have around a 23% chance to win this series. It could be worse.

Hello fellow Braves fans. My name is Josh and this will be my first post here for the Braves Baseball Blog at NL East Chatter. For a bit of background, I’m 24 and have been a Braves fan since the 1991 squad stormed the baseball world. When I was younger, I had a very unhealthy obsession with Jeff Blauser and Mark Lemke. I have a Steve Avery Starting Lineup figure which hung like a trophy in my cubicle at work. I hate Kirby Puckett and Jack Morris. I recently moved from Pennsylvania to North Carolina, which gives me significantly easier access to seeing a Braves game in Atlanta. While I enjoyed antagonizing Phillies fans each time I went to a game, I would much rather be a full part of the crowd. Anyway, that’s enough about me. Here’s a preview of the upcoming series against the Marlins.

If you aren’t familiar with some of the stats and terminology in the preview, I highly recommend heading over to FanGraphs. All of the things I talk about will be referenced there. If there are any questions, feel free to ask and I’ll be happy to explain myself further.

Atlanta Braves (51-48 6.5GB) @ Florida Marlins (51-48 6.5GB)

Braves Team Stats (Season): -3 wRAA, .327 wOBA, -18.7 UZR

Braves Team Stats (Last 30 days): 26 wRAA, .356 wOBA

Marlins Team Stats (Season): -29 wRAA, .319 wOBA, -10.0 UZR

Marlins Team Stats: (Last 30 days): -12 wRAA, .311 wOBA

Tuesday’s Starters

ATL: Jair Jurrjens (3.64 FIP, 6.19 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 2.4 WAR)

FLO: Ricky Nolasco (3.44 FIP, 9.17 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 2.1 WAR)

This should be a great game to watch. Nolasco has been exceptional all season, although you might not realize that if you only look at his ERA. His demotion at the end of May was unwarranted, as his peripheral stats all seemed to be where they should be. Nolasco’s biggest problem has been luck. He is currently sporting a BABIP of .353, which is .04 higher than his expected BABIP of .313. Those extra hits have proved costly. Between that and 60% LOB rate (which should be around 70%), Nolasco has been the victim of bad luck. Jurrjens’ luck has gone the other way so far, which is not to say that he hasn’t been good. He’s been a bit fortunate on his balls in play, his strand rate is touch high (77%) and his K/9 is down half a strikeout from last season. His ERA is misleading and should likely be where it was last year, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t good. Jurrjens’ ability to keep the ball in the park allows him to get by without having the stuff to miss a lot of bats.

From what I see, there isn’t a Vegas line available yet. My guess is that we won’t be favored. Being able to steal this game and break the tie would be a great way kick start this series.

Wednesday’s Starters

ATL: Kenshin Kawakami (4.35 FIP, 6.46 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.1 WAR)

FLO: Josh Johnson (2.92 FIP, 7.53 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 3.6 WAR)

As we move from one great Marlins’ starter to another, Kawakami draws the short straw to see who faces arguably the best young pitcher in the NL not named Tim Lincecum. Kawakami has been as-advertised to this point. With his current pace, he’ll likely provide the value that his contract is paying him this season. Johnson, on the other hand, will be worth exponentially more than his contract pays him. He is the total package; misses bats, doesn’t walk people, keeps the ball in the park. It shouldn’t be too long before the Marlins need to jettison Johnson due to contract demands, because he is the real deal.

We will likely be a sizeable underdog in this game and with good reason. A win here would be a pretty big surprise.

Thursday’s Starters

ATL: Javier Vazquez (2.53 FIP, 10.15 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 4.4 WAR)

FLO: Rick VandenHurk

VandenHurk is making his 3^rd start of the season, so listing his stats would be a bit misleading. From what I see, he throws predominantly fastballs, mixing in a curveball and a change. It seems like he strikes out hitters at a better than average rate, but he’s never thrown more than 82 innings at one level in a season, so it’s hard to get a true read. But never mind Vanderhurk, the real story in this game is Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has been otherworldly since coming to the Braves, although his record doesn’t exactly show it. The stat that I find so interesting has been his control. He’s walking less than two batters per nine for the first time since 2005, which coincidently was his last season in the NL. If his first half numbers hold up, and I don’t see much reason that they won’t, he should be in the discussion for Cy Young. If the Braves can make the push into the wild card with Vazquez picking up some wins, he could pass Lincecum and Haren, since neither would make the playoffs.

We should be the favorite here. I think the Fish get game two and we should pick up game three, which means tomorrow night’s showdown between Jurrjens and Nolasco will be the swing game. Officially, I’m a bit nervous about our chances in this series. To me, it’s basically a coin-flip. I’m naturally pessimistic, so I’ll say the Marlins take this series.

First post on the blog and I’m picking against the Braves. Do I lose my fan card for this?

Haha what if your a Braves fan. The great Greg Maddux had his number retired and the Braves destroyed division rival New York Mets. Ahhh man I can’t stress how good a day it was. Im not going to write much because I feel as though I will ruin the moment so I’ll let everything sink in…once again what a great day to be a Braves fan.

Espn Article

Wicked pumped for the second half to start. Braves vs. Mets = first series of the second half. Can it get any better. Oh yea the Braves are facing Ollie Perez.

GO BRAVES !!!

So at the halfway mark the Braves sit at  3rd in the NL East and are 6 games out at the moment. So where do they go from here?

I’m very optimistic about there chances of winning the division with how good the Phillies look.  But hey anything is possible, especially with the way the pitching has been all season. My one concern is the hitting, has been wicked inconsistant all damn season and as a life long Braves fan it is getting really annoying. I like the acquistion of Church, but I think we need at least one more reliable bat. Someone who can help spread the load with McLouth, McCann, and Chipper.  Well see what happens the Braves have been relatively aggresive so far, so hopefully they pull another move.

Let me know how you feek about their chances!

Also the rest of the awards are as follows.

Best Hitter = Chipper Jones

Biggest Surprise = Martin Prado

Rookie = Kenshin Kawakami

So I took a trip to Philadelphia to see a Phillies game. I had on my Red Sox cap figuring to be neutral. When the game started I was rooting for the Pirates, but that all changed in the 9th inning when Matt Stairs lead off the inning with a bomb of a home run. This hardly hit ball got the 5-run rally started and by the end of the game I found myself rooting for a team that I have hated for years. I must say one of the most exciting games I’ve ever been to and easily the nicest stadium I’ve been to….Now to the Braves

Two NL East teams swapping right fielder, Braves send Frenchy to the Mets while the Braves get Ryan Church. Love the move for the Braves finally getting rid of the slumping Jeff Francouer. I have been a big Ryan Church fan for a few years now, I’m just hopping he can put up some of the same numbers he did last year for the Mets. Until next time GO BRAVES !!!

FYI … Awards will be coming soon