Archive for the 'Game Preview' Category

With the Rockies’ late night, extra innings miracle win against the Giants last night, the Braves are 4.5 games out of the wild card. According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds, Atlanta has a 32.4% chance of making the playoffs.

The Braves will resume work on closing that gap when the Padres come to town tonight and open up a three game series at 7 PM Eastern.

Jair Jurrjens takes the hill for the Braves, hoping to build upon a hot streak that began a month ago whe he outpitched Tim Lincecum. Since (and including) that game, he has struck out 25 and walked eight in 28 2/3 innings pitched.

Jurrjens’ opponent, rookie Mat Latos, is heading in the opposite direction. In his past two starts (7 2/3 IP), Latos has allowed 12 ER on 15 H and 7 BB. The Padres have decided he will only make one more start beyond tonight in order to limit the 21-year-old RHP’s workload.

Today’s Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels (LHP, Phillies) vs. Kenshin Kawakami (RHP, Braves)

It’s easy to look at Cole Hamels’ stellar 2008 and forget that for much of his career he’s been dogged by the dreaded label of “injury-prone”. But that label is not an uncommon one among young pitchers, especially ones that have endured the heavy workload that Hamels bore last season (223 1/3 IP, not including playoffs). Though he’s spent some time on the disabled list this season, Hamels has performed admirably (128 1/3 IP, 111 K, 27 BB, 41% GB rate). There is some cause for concern, as he’s on a three-year downward trend in strikeouts per nine (9.9, 8.7, 7.8).

There’s little good that can be said about what Hamels’ opponent, Kenshin Kawakami, has done this season (118 IP, 84 K, 49 BB). If Kawakami can outperform Hamels on Saturday, it will be huge not only for the Braves’ postseason hopes but for Kawakami’s hopes of remaining in the rotation. On August 13th, Tim Hudson pitched four innings against AAA Durham (Tampa Bay), striking out three, walking one, and giving up five hits in four innings pitched.

It’s difficult to overstate the importance of this weekend’s series against the Phillies. By Monday, the Braves could be as few as two games back of the Phills in the NL East or as many as eight. Baseball Prospectus currently gives the Braves a 44% chance of making the playoffs. Taking two or three games from Philadelphia should dramatically improve those odds. The series gets started on Friday night in Atlanta, where Jair Jurrjens and Joe Blanton are set to take the mound.

Blanton came to the Phillies last season via trade from the Oakland Athletics. Since arriving in Philadelphia, Blanton has been a solid mid-rotation type who is, at times, prone to being done in by the longball. (But then again, are there any pitchers who pitch half of their games in Citizens Bank about whom this cannot be said?) On the year, Blanton has pitched 132 innings, tallying 111 K and 35 BB while giving up 1.5 HR/9. Blanton has been particularly effective of late: in his past 28 1/3 innings, he has a 2.51 ERA on the strength of 20 K and just 2 BB over that same period.

Jair Jurrjens will be asked to manage the difficult task of limiting the damage done by the Phillies’ lineup, a solid group to be sure but one that feasts on right-handed pitching in paricular. Jurrjens’ overall performance this season had been characterized by deterioration in each base skill: strikeouts, walks, and groundball percentage. But Jurrjens caught fire after the All-Star break to bring his strikeout and walk ratios in line with those from 2008 (The only perceptible difference is an eight percent drop on his groundball rate.) In his last 29 IP, Jurrjens has struck out 25 against 9 walks on his way to a 3.41 ERA during that period.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:30 ET.

Good news, Phillies fans: Kenshin Kawakami is set to take the mound on Saturday. Philadelphia has yet to name a probable starter. Sunday’s matchup will be much better for Atlanta, as staff ace Javier Vazquez will take on overrated rookie J.A. Happ.

Hello fellow Braves fans. My name is Josh and this will be my first post here for the Braves Baseball Blog at NL East Chatter. For a bit of background, I’m 24 and have been a Braves fan since the 1991 squad stormed the baseball world. When I was younger, I had a very unhealthy obsession with Jeff Blauser and Mark Lemke. I have a Steve Avery Starting Lineup figure which hung like a trophy in my cubicle at work. I hate Kirby Puckett and Jack Morris. I recently moved from Pennsylvania to North Carolina, which gives me significantly easier access to seeing a Braves game in Atlanta. While I enjoyed antagonizing Phillies fans each time I went to a game, I would much rather be a full part of the crowd. Anyway, that’s enough about me. Here’s a preview of the upcoming series against the Marlins.

If you aren’t familiar with some of the stats and terminology in the preview, I highly recommend heading over to FanGraphs. All of the things I talk about will be referenced there. If there are any questions, feel free to ask and I’ll be happy to explain myself further.

Atlanta Braves (51-48 6.5GB) @ Florida Marlins (51-48 6.5GB)

Braves Team Stats (Season): -3 wRAA, .327 wOBA, -18.7 UZR

Braves Team Stats (Last 30 days): 26 wRAA, .356 wOBA

Marlins Team Stats (Season): -29 wRAA, .319 wOBA, -10.0 UZR

Marlins Team Stats: (Last 30 days): -12 wRAA, .311 wOBA

Tuesday’s Starters

ATL: Jair Jurrjens (3.64 FIP, 6.19 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 2.4 WAR)

FLO: Ricky Nolasco (3.44 FIP, 9.17 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 2.1 WAR)

This should be a great game to watch. Nolasco has been exceptional all season, although you might not realize that if you only look at his ERA. His demotion at the end of May was unwarranted, as his peripheral stats all seemed to be where they should be. Nolasco’s biggest problem has been luck. He is currently sporting a BABIP of .353, which is .04 higher than his expected BABIP of .313. Those extra hits have proved costly. Between that and 60% LOB rate (which should be around 70%), Nolasco has been the victim of bad luck. Jurrjens’ luck has gone the other way so far, which is not to say that he hasn’t been good. He’s been a bit fortunate on his balls in play, his strand rate is touch high (77%) and his K/9 is down half a strikeout from last season. His ERA is misleading and should likely be where it was last year, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t good. Jurrjens’ ability to keep the ball in the park allows him to get by without having the stuff to miss a lot of bats.

From what I see, there isn’t a Vegas line available yet. My guess is that we won’t be favored. Being able to steal this game and break the tie would be a great way kick start this series.

Wednesday’s Starters

ATL: Kenshin Kawakami (4.35 FIP, 6.46 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.1 WAR)

FLO: Josh Johnson (2.92 FIP, 7.53 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 3.6 WAR)

As we move from one great Marlins’ starter to another, Kawakami draws the short straw to see who faces arguably the best young pitcher in the NL not named Tim Lincecum. Kawakami has been as-advertised to this point. With his current pace, he’ll likely provide the value that his contract is paying him this season. Johnson, on the other hand, will be worth exponentially more than his contract pays him. He is the total package; misses bats, doesn’t walk people, keeps the ball in the park. It shouldn’t be too long before the Marlins need to jettison Johnson due to contract demands, because he is the real deal.

We will likely be a sizeable underdog in this game and with good reason. A win here would be a pretty big surprise.

Thursday’s Starters

ATL: Javier Vazquez (2.53 FIP, 10.15 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 4.4 WAR)

FLO: Rick VandenHurk

VandenHurk is making his 3^rd start of the season, so listing his stats would be a bit misleading. From what I see, he throws predominantly fastballs, mixing in a curveball and a change. It seems like he strikes out hitters at a better than average rate, but he’s never thrown more than 82 innings at one level in a season, so it’s hard to get a true read. But never mind Vanderhurk, the real story in this game is Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has been otherworldly since coming to the Braves, although his record doesn’t exactly show it. The stat that I find so interesting has been his control. He’s walking less than two batters per nine for the first time since 2005, which coincidently was his last season in the NL. If his first half numbers hold up, and I don’t see much reason that they won’t, he should be in the discussion for Cy Young. If the Braves can make the push into the wild card with Vazquez picking up some wins, he could pass Lincecum and Haren, since neither would make the playoffs.

We should be the favorite here. I think the Fish get game two and we should pick up game three, which means tomorrow night’s showdown between Jurrjens and Nolasco will be the swing game. Officially, I’m a bit nervous about our chances in this series. To me, it’s basically a coin-flip. I’m naturally pessimistic, so I’ll say the Marlins take this series.

First post on the blog and I’m picking against the Braves. Do I lose my fan card for this?

Braves prospect Tommy Hanson will make his major league debut today against the Brewers at 1:30 PM in Atlanta. Good Luck to Hanson as he will need it as the Brewers lineup has been hitting the ball well lately. Go BRAVES !!! and Tommy Hanson!

Tonight’s game features Braves ace Derek Lowe vs. current Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren(Brandon Webb is hurt) tonight at 9:40 in Arizona. The Braves come off a sweep by the Giants so they look to get back on track tonight against with Lowe on the mound. Lowe has been an excellent pick up by the Braves and tonight he goes for his 7th win of the season.

One of the problems all year has been the inconsistency of the bats all year so they hope to find their swings this series. It won’t be easy as they face the sometime dominate Dan Haren. The Braves sit in 3rd place and are only 3 games behind the Mets so they hope to get some more consistent offense and hopefully can string together some wins. As I said tonights games is at 9:40pm in Arizona.

GO BRAVES!!!

Tonight Braves prospect Kris Medlen will make his major league debut against Aaron Cook and the Colorado Rockies at 7:00 PM. GO BRAVES! and Good Luck to Kris Medlen!

Tonight the Braves are set to face lefty Jorge De La Rosa in the final game of their series with the Rockies. In his last 2 starts DLR has struck out 22 batters in 15 innings. The problem when DLR pitches hasn’t been poor pitching, but lack of run support. So Braves starter Javier Vazquez, who has also been dominate in his last few starts looks to keep the Rockies bats quiet tonight.

Last night the Braves scored 8 runs, so let’s hope that type of offense can continue tonight as well. Tonight’s game is scheduled for 7:00 PM at Turner Field. GO BRAVES !!!

The Braves are looking to get their bats going for Jair who has pitched excellent this year posting a nearly sub 2 ERA, but still only has 3 wins for the year. The Rockies send Jason Hammel to the mound who has pitched pretty bad, this coldn’t come  at a better time for the slumping Braves. LETS GET SOME HITS !!! Tonights games starts at 7:00 PM and is at Turner Field.

GO BRAVES !!!

Tonight the Braves send rookie pitcher Kenshin Kawakami to the mound to face Max Scherzer and the Diamondbacks. The rookie Kawakami looks to get his 3rd win of the year and help get the Braves closer to first place and the Mets. So far this year in 6 starts Kawakamiis 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA. He has looked good for the majority of the year minus a few starts. His counterpart Max Scherzer is still looking for his 1st career major league win, eventhough he has pitched well enough to win more than once in his brief career. The Braves also hope to get the bats going tonight at Turner field.

Tonights game starts at 7:05 pm at Turner field.

GO BRAVES !!!