Archive for the 'Player Profile' Category

It is no secret that the SABR community stood athwart the selection of Nate McLouth as the 2008 NL Rawlings Gold Glove recipient in center field. Several defensive metrics bore witness to McLouth’s futility that year, but no amount of data or reason prevented Gold Glove voters from deferring to their bias for players possessing that oh-so-valuable quality of ‘grittiness’. (Think Aaron Rowand and David Eckstein, or basically any white guy who appears to overachieve. A gritty player may also be identified by possessing large quantities of ‘stick-to-it-iveness’.)

But then a curious thing happened. After struggling to hold his own in center as a Pittsburgh Pirate during 2007 and 2008, McLouth was a defensive asset in 2009. In fact, even though he experienced some regression from his career year at the plate in 2008 (.853 ’08 OPS; .788 ’09 OPS) McLouth was just as valuable in 2009 (3.5 ’08 WAR, 3.6 ’09 WAR) because he was a dramatically improved defender (-14.5 ’08 UZR, 3.6 ’09 UZR). And that’s including some DL time courtesy of a nagging hamstring injury.

Your initial reaction, like mine, may have been that McLouth probably benefitted from his mid-season change of venue from PNC Park to Turner Field. Maybe Turner Field was just easier to defend than PNC. But the numbers tell a different story. McLouth was markedly better while patrolling center at PNC Park than at Turner Field. According to RAA2, McLouth’s defense was worth +8 runs above average with Pittsburgh but fell to -7 with Atlanta.

Now, a limitation of this information is that it is not segregated by park (i.e., home and away). But that shortcoming doesn’t make Nate McLouth’s defensive 2009 any less enigmatic, nor does it give us any better of an idea of what to expect from McLouth in 2009. If the 2007/08 version shows up, Melky Cabrera might prove a rather useful player for the Braves. Putting Melky in center and McLouth and right would save the Braves at least 10 runs in the field.

But if Nate McLouth did have some sort of breakthrough in center field last season, Melky Cabrera becomes even more useless than he initially appeared when he came to Atlanta as part of the Javier Vazquez payroll dump trade.

While we can’t ignore McLouth’s 2009 in the field, it’s more likely that we’ll see the old Nate McLouth than the +4.7 UZR/150 Nate McLouth. Playing CF isn’t something that gets easier to do as you get older, and lingering hamstring issues are never good for a player whose value is so heavily driven by his speed.

McLouth’s bat is something more of a known quality – though the drop in power in 2009 makes you wonder if Nate has already passed his peak. A 5% uptick in his ground balls on balls in play drove the power dive while a slide in his contact rate (84% in ’08, ’80% in ’09) drove a .020 BA decline.  Otherwise, McLouth’s base skills remain stable.

This is what two major publications have projected for Mr. McLouth’s 2010 season:

Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster: .260/.339/.429
Bill James Baseball Handbook: .263/.344/.449

Brian McCann’s 2009 was famously marred by a Lasik surgery that didn’t take. One can’t help but think that the drop-off from his 2008 level of production had something do with this (.281/.346/.486 in ’09, .301/.371/.523 in ’08).

The decline in McCann’s rate statistics coincided with declines in his base skills (-1 BB%, -4 contact %, -2 flyball %). Still, the drop-off was marginal and to be expected following a season as mammoth as McCann’s 2008 – but even so, McCann was still one of the elite catchers in 2009.

Going into his age 26 season and with another offseason Lasik procedure (that will hopefully go much more smoothly), I’d put expectations for McCann somewhere between 2008 and 2009. That’s a conclusion with which the industry’s leading prognosticators seem agree:

Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster: .286/.350/.509
The Bill James Handbook: .291/.362/.511

Assuming he’s healthy, Brian McCann’s is one of the most stable skill sets in the game. And that has to give comfort to Frank Wren and fantasy owners alike.

Born in Hammond, Indiana on September 4, 1986, the newest Braves prospect to join the team is outfielder Jordan Schafer. The 23 year old youngster made his major league debut this year with Braves. Scahfer who according to Baseball America is the Braves 3rd best prospect.

Schafer was drafted by the Braves in 3rd round of the 2005 Major League draft, straight out of high school. In 2008 he was suspended for 50 games for ALLEGED HGH use, but he never tested positive. After the suspension was over Schafer was eventually name the Braves starting center fielder at the start of the 2009 season. In his first major league at bat Schafer belted a home run off  Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Brett Myers, becoming the 99th player in MLB history to accomplish this feat. Scahfer is a good combination of speed and power, and has very good defensive skills as well.

So far this season Schafer is batting 220, with 2 home runs, and 3 RBI, but he leading the league in strikeouts with 43 already. Schafer has looked good in the field, and the Braves are just waiting for his bat to come around to complete the package. This young player will be seeing consistent time, so look out for him as he improves at the plate.

David Ross is the current backup catcher for the Atlanta Braves. He was born March 19, 1977 in Bainbridge, Georgia. Ross attended Auburn University, but later transfered in 1997 to the University of Florida, he is only a handful of players to have played in the College World Series with two different teams. He was drafted twice in the 7th round by the LA Dodgers,  but didn’t sign until the second time in 1998. He played with the Dodgers for 3 seasons before signing with Pittsburgh Pirates and then was traded to the San Diego Padres in 2005. Ross was then signed by the Cincinnati Reds, were he had his best years to date, and normally acted as the personal catcher for Bronson Arroyo.

After being released in 2008 by the Reds, he signed a minor league deal with the Boston Red Sox, and didn’t see major league playing time until the end of August. Later released by the Sox, he signed with the Braves were he is now and acts as Brian McCann’s backup. So far this season for the Braves he is batting 298 with 3 home runs and 9 RBI’s. Ross played very well for the Braves while Brian McCann was on the DL, but is now the backup once again. It’s good to see Ross make the most of his playing time. I know the Braves are very excited that they have such an affective backup in case something happens to McCann again.

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