While I didn’t expect a win, I did expect to not have the winning margin come from a Josh Johnson homer. Kawakami was terrible. He was chased in the fifth after giving up his third homerun in seven batters. Seven hits and three walks before the fifth is over is not the recipe for success. In a game where Josh Johnson only gets one strikeout in six innings, you need to hope you can bunch some hits. Unfortunately, Kotchman’s homerun was a solo shot and Anderson’s came at a time when it really didn’t matter anymore. McCann and Escobar both put up the 0-4′s, although Brian was able to score after a fielder’s choice.

The play that hurt us the most, other than the Johnson dinger, happened in the top of the 5th. With one out and runners on the corners, Prado stepped up in a 4-1 game with a chance to keep it interesting. After fouling off the first pitch, Prado took two balls. That would be the best part of the at-bat, as he promptly grounded into an inning ending double play which lowed our chances to win the game by 11%. Ouch.

Vazquez/VandenHurk tonight. Vegas line says we are 59.7% to win. Let’s hope Vazquez can stop the bleeding and get us out of Florida. Unfortunately for us, we leave Florida in order to go home to welcome the Dodgers.

Well, that hurt. After taking the lead in the top of the 9th off of a Garrett Anderson solo homer, Soriano gave up a walk, sac bunt and walk off homer to the immortal Ross Gload to give the Marlins the first game of the series.

The Braves got on the board first with an RBI single from Prado. Jurrjens gave it right back in the bottom half, however, with a double from Hanley that scored Nolasco (ugh) and Bonifacio.  Things stayed that way until the top of the 6th, where Chipper led of the inning with a solo shot. Of course, this all led to the rug being pulled out from under us in the 9th. It’s games like this that will be remembered at the end of the season when we finish 2 games out of the Wild Card.

Jurrjens pitched well, going six innings with five strikeouts while walking just one. Anderson had the best day at the plate, going 2-4 with the aforementioned home run. Obviously, the biggest low-light was Soriano’s blown save, but McCann and Kotchman can both take a bit of the blame with dueling 0-4′s.

Kawakami/Johnson tonight. We really need Kawakami to step it up if we have any chance of taking these next two game.  The Vegas line says that we are 41.5% to win tonight. That seems realistic. If we use that number and assume a 55% chance to win tomorrow, we have around a 23% chance to win this series. It could be worse.