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ALOHA JOSE-To Trade or Not to Trade That is the Question (pt. 2)
Filed Under (NL East Chatter, Uncategorized) by davidw on 17-05-2011
Tagged Under : American League, Baltimore Orioles, Jose Reyes, Kansas City Royals, MLB, National League, New York Mets

Reyes pondering future?
To briefly recap, Monday I wrote about the Jose Reyes trade chatter so far this season and rather or not the Mets should or would trade them. The question I raised was if they did shop him around to other teams who might they call and which teams could inquire about obtaining Reyes. I decided to look at the AL first and eliminated a few prospective teams. That left me with four potential suitors for the SS’s services. Since the Mets needs, particularly pitching, are somewhat immediate I predominately focused on AAA or AA talent when talking about minor leaguers.
Let’s check out the first team.
Baltimore Orioles

Postseason play is a pipe dream in ’11 for the O’s or is it? A quarter of the way into the season and the baby Birds are nipping at the heels of .500, only 3. 5 games back. It’s early but with the Yankees relying on the likes of Freddy Garcia and a retooled Bartolo Colon not to mention the Bosox maddening inconsistency, Baltimore could conceivably make a run. They’re an up and coming team that has a lot of talented young arms (something the Mets need) and J.J. Hardy as their SS. Nothing against Hardy but when you have a chance to acquire a premier talent in his prime like Reyes you don’t hesitate.

O's top prospect Machado a future Met?
This team is still a year or two away. They also have their own highly touted SS prospect in 18 year old Manny Machado. So do you jettison Machado in a deal for Reyes? Probably not, and the Mets would most likely not be interested since losing Reyes would create a large void on the left side of the diamond that would need to be filled immediately.
Taking a look at the Birds AA/AAA affiliates, other than a couple of intriguing possibilities, there’s really not much to choose from on the farm. At AAA top prospect Ryan Adams currently hitting .297 for Norfolk appears to be for real and former first rounder Brandon Snyder is carrying a .462 SLG percentage and appears ready for MLB action soon. AA Bowie slugger Ronnie Welty has some pop and lefty reliever Pedro Viola throws gas but neither could be a centerpiece of a deal. Most importantly, aside from Viola, none of them address New York’s primary need-pitching.

Future Oriole ace Brian Matusz
For a deal to materialize Orioles GM Andy MacPhail would have to part with one of his young starters: Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen or Brian Matusz. If they put a package of say Matusz or Arrieta along with Viola or Welty and Hardy (the Mets will need a SS, and he’s more than serviceable) then possibly an ancillary A or low A player it could make an interesting scenario. The wild card would be if the Orioles were willing to part with Matt Wieters. The Mets would definitely ask and the O’s would most like say no.
Unless the Orioles centered a deal around one of their young stud major league arms or Wieters the possibility of Reyes in black and orange is nil.
Kansas City Royals

The surprising Royals are looking more like contenders than pretenders at this point. It’s only May however and when Bruce Chen is your ace, well you need a lot of things to fall in your favor. A raft of youngsters await the call to arms in Omaha but throwing a pack of untested hurlers into the heat of a pennant race is not usually a recipe for success.
But let’s say the Royals find themselves still in the hunt around the All Star break. A move for an established arm and an electrifying shortstop atop a line-up featuring Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and possibly Mike Moustakas would be tempting for any GM. Tempting enough to part with one of their Grade AAA Prime pitching prospects? If it is, this could be one helluva a trade. Yes, the Royals have young, slick fielding Alcides Escobar at SS but that is exactly why this is a deal that if the pieces fall into place could get done. A caveat would be that Mike Pelfrey continues his recent streak of solid starts or maybe Chris Capuano stays healthy and pitching well.
Let’s say the Mets offer Reyes and KC has interest, the Mets obviously would want one of those stud pitchers in the pen down on the Royals farm. The Royals however need a 2 or 3 to shore up their current rotation, someone to provide some veteran savy for their next generation staff. So the Mets package Mike Pelfrey (or Chris Capuano) with Reyes. Now the Mets are solving two of KC’s immediate problems and by sending Escobar in return the Royals are providing the Mets with a replacement shortstop who was recently a highly sought after prospect. At 24 he is also still young enough to develop into something more.
At this point the Mets would look into that deep well of AA and AAA Kansas City pitching talent, drop some lines and go fishing.

Touted pitching prospect John Lamb
They’d find:
(L) Mike Montgomery 2.84 ERA at Omaha (L)-Danny Duffy 41K’s in 32 IP at Omaha (L)-John Lamb 3.49 ERA at AA and (L)-Jake Odorizzi 3-0 1.97 ERA at high A. (R)-Jeremy Jeffress is pitching well in relief for KC and although (R)-Chris Dwyer is struggling this year at AA, he rung up 113 batters in 102 IP last season.
Lesser known Royal prospects like AAA righty Kevin Pucetas 3-0 1.57 and hard throwing Wil Smith (NWArk) are more examples of the depth within the KC minor league pitching vault. Farmhands RF David Lough, ex-Brewer Lorenzo Cain, C/OF Wil Myers and SS Christian Colon are position players who also fit well with the Mets current needs.
There are so many options here that trade possibilities are endless. Reyes and Pelfrey for Lamb, Pucetas, Lough and Escobar. Reyes and Pelfrey for Myers, Escobar and Dwyer or Odorizzi, Reyes for Myers and Escobar, Reyes for Escobar and Duffy, etc…
Royals GM Dayton Moore would want to lock up Jose long-term before finalizing any deal. The question is would Reyes take his act from the bright lights of the Apple to the “show me” state. Kansas City does have a few things going for it though: great bar-b-que, Blues plus he’d have a lot of fun in the coming years on top of that developing line up. As dynamic as a KC/NYM trade could be, I believe the Royals would have to be in serious contention heading into August for anything to develop. The Mets would also, in effect, have given up on their season. If that scenario develops a trade to the Royals I believe would hinge upon Reyes signing a pre-trade deal with KC.

Reyes heading for a new home in KC?
Would Reyes sign on the dotted line and say yes to the Royals?
In my opinion Reyes is the kind of ballplayer who prefer’s a bigger stage to perform on. That’s not a criticism of him or the city of Kansas City. It’s just that some players live for the bright lights and adulation found in places like New York, Los Angeles or Chicago for example. Jose likes the limelight and he’d be to far away from it here. Reyes in Royal blue? No way, Jose.
(next we’ll look at the two other possible American League destinations for Reyes)
The Twins scored four runs in the first inning off of Santana (5-5), and never looked back. Joe Mauer started the scoring with a run-scoring single, and then with 2 outs, Jason Kubel hit an RBI double and Delmon Young doubled home two more runs to give the Twins an early 4-0 lead. Meanwhile, Pavano (9-6) was dominant from the start. Pavano went all nine innings, allowing just three singles and a walk to the Mets. Kubel added a solo home run in the ninth inning to cap the scoring.
Kenshin Kawakami came into the game winless, and though he pitched well over seven innings, left trailing 1-0. However, the Braves finally gave Kawakami (1-9) some support in the bottom of the seventh when Chipper Jones belted a three-run home run off of Detroit reliever Joel Zumaya (2-1). The Braves added another run in the eighth on an Eric Hinske RBI double and entered the ninth inning with a 4-1 lead.Â
The Blue Jays touched up Phillies starter Cole Hamels (5-5) for five runs in four innings. John Buck, Aaron Hill and Alex Gonzalez each homered off of Hamels to spark the Toronto offense. Shaun Marcum (7-3) didn’t allow the Phillies to get back into the game, allowing just one run over six innings. The Phillies only run came courtesy of a Ryan Howard solo home run. In an unusual site, Howard acted as the Phillies’ DH as the game was played under American League rules in the NL ballpark. Toronto relievers combined for three scoreless innings to close out their Philly home victory.
Washington scored four runs in the 3rd inning, thanks to a two-run double by Adam Dunn and RBIs from Ivan Rodriguez and Roger Bernadina. After adding another run in the fourth, the Orioles came back against Nats’ starter Livan Hernandez. Adam Jones homered in the fourth to get the O’s on the board, and then the Orioles scored four in the fifth. Matt Wieters  delivered the big hit, as his two-run single tied the game at 5.
The Marlins scored first in the second inning thanks to a Mike Stanton sacrifice fly. The Padres answered back in the fourth when Adrian Gonzalez doubled home David Eckstein with the tying run.  In the fifth, Jerry Hairston Jr. tripled off of Stanton’s glove, and then scored on Garland’s fly ball to right field.  Garland’s ball took Stanton into foul ground, and Marlins players tried to yell at Stanton to let the ball land foul, but his catch turned into a sacrifice fly and scored the deciding run.
Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka was scratched just before game time due to a strained forearm, and the Phillies took a 2-0 lead in the top of the second off of emergency starter Scott Atchinson thanks to a Brian Schneider two-run double.  However, the Red Sox jumped on pitcher Joe Blanton in the bottom of the inning. JD Drew started off the scoring with a solo home run, and Daniel Nava hit a grand slam in his first major league at bat to give Boston a 5-2 lead.Â
Jose Reyes led off the game with a home run off of Baltimore starter Brian Matusz. The Orioles tied the game at 1 in the bottom of the first off of Hisanori Takahashi on a Nick Markakis RBI double.  The game remained 1-1 until the top of the sixth, when the Mets took the lead. The Orioles failed to turn a double play on a David Wright comebacker, allowing the Mets to score the go-ahead run. Jeff Francoeur added a solo home run in the eighth inning to cap the scoring.Â
Playing in his second major league game, the highly touted Santana drove in three runs to lead the Indians offense. Indians starter Fausto Carmona (5-5) went nine strong innings, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven. Ryan Zimmerman‘s eighth inning home run spoiled Carmona’s shutout bid.  Martin (0-2) pitched into the eighth inning, but allowed seven runs and took the loss.
Braves starter Derek Lowe and Twins starter Nick Blackburn each allowed only two runs, but neither factored in the decision. After the Twins took a 1-0 lead in the second, the Braves answered with two in the fifth thanks to a Melky Cabrera solo homer and an RBI double from Brooks Conrad.  A Joe Mauer double tied the game in the sixth, and the score remained even at 2 until the top of the ninth. With runners on the corners, Conrad successfully executed a squeeze bunt, scoring Gregor Blanco with the go-ahead run.Â
The Rays jumped out to an early 5-1 lead, thanks to home runs by Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Sean Rodrgiuez off of Florida starer Ricky Nolasco (5-5).  However, the Marlins battled back against Tampa starter Matt Garza. Wes Helms hit a two run homer in the fourth and the Fish scored another in the fifth to cut the lead to 5-4. After the Rays added a run in the seventh, the Marlins answered back in the eighth with one of their own, but couldn’t bring home the tying run.Â
Mets vs. Yankees
Phillies vs. Red Sox
Marlins vs. White Sox
Braves vs. Pirates
Nationals vs. Orioles

Since 1997 only one National League East team has managed to win multiple World Series titles. That team is the Florida Marlins. Despite existing in a league that features the high spending New York Mets, the consistent Atlanta Braves, and the offensive juggernaut known as the Philadelphia Phillies, Florida has managed to remain competitive and successful.
(traded to Chicago Cubs, signed 5 yr/$65 million) all represent the Marlins’ plan to allow young players to develop and then trade them when they are at or near peak value. These players have then received more valuable contracts than the Marlins would have ever been willing to offer. In addition, players such as Ivan Rodriguez, Armando Benitez, and Todd Jones are examples of veterans who used their time as Marlins to procure more lucrative long-term deals.
impact of failed prospects.

























